Day: February 10, 2023

Iran has also become a burden for Pashinyan

According to the logic of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, official Yerevan did not agree to be located on the contact line with Azerbaijan due to the observers of Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, so that 1) relations with the United States and the European Union would not be harmed; 2) The West should not face accusations that Armenia will create provocations against Azerbaijan on the joint line of contact with Russia.

Pashinyan's statement means that he is moving away from Russia's sphere of interest. A few weeks before this statement, he used the sentence "The military presence of Russia in Armenia (read: the presence of its military bases), which is waging a war in Ukraine, is a threat to Armenia." Pashinyan's statements of this type clearly irritate the Kremlin. It is no coincidence that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov first used the phrase "Azerbaijan has liberated the lands occupied by Armenia".

Pashinyan began to distance himself in relations with Russia in order to get the support of the West in the fight against Azerbaijan. Pashinyan should try to stay away from Iran with the same logic. If the alliance with Russia, which is waging an aggressive war in Ukraine, is a blow to the image of Armenia in the West, the closeness with the theocratic Iran, which is under sanctions, may also create problems for Yerevan in its relations with Washington and Brussels. Perhaps this is why the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, said that Iran's support for Armenia does not come from great love for Armenians: "When Iran declares the inadmissibility of geopolitical changes, it does so primarily for itself. "Iran sells and transports weapons based on its national interests."

This is a new confession. Therefore, the alliance with Iran is also a burden for Armenia. Tehran will be irritated by Yerevan's correction of its foreign policy. The location of the European Union delegation, which will include French observers, along the contact line with Azerbaijan, in an area close to Iran, is against Tehran's interests. "Foreign countries should not be involved in solving the problems in the relations of the regional countries" - this is a statement repeatedly made by Iranian officials, diplomats, clerics and generals. Contrary to Tehran's approach, Iravan brings France to the region, which is involved in the tightening of sanctions against Iran.

 

Washington is preparing for 2025

Various circles of the United States consider the scenario of war with China to be realistic. There are those who believe that this will happen in 2025. Among the American congressmen, there are not a few who consider the possibility of war to be high. Republican congressmen consider current President Joe Biden as a weak leader to go to war with China. They think Biden is soft on Beijing. The White House does not react to these possibilities. In Beijing, they regard such possibilities as provocations.

Why is the possibility of collision in 2025 proposed?

Presidential elections will be held in the USA and Taiwan in 2024. Some in Washington believe that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will try to use the vacuum to increase pressure. The US presidential campaign and inauguration will take time. Beijing will take decisive steps on Taiwan until the new president of the United States takes office.

Chinese experts responded to the war scenarios through articles in the English-language Global Times newspaper published in China. Chinese experts said that the political circles in Washington deliberately strained the relations between the two countries. Mao Ning, the representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, also categorically rejected the views of Beijing about starting a war in Washington.

In Washington and European capitals, China's rapprochement with Russia has also increased. Tokyo is also beautiful. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kisido expressed concern about the increase in Chinese-Russian military exercises near the coast of Japan in his meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The NATO Secretary General assessed China's growing military activity in the Asian region as a threat.

There are those who think differently. For example The head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, believes that the Kremlin will lose China's support if Putin uses nuclear weapons. He thinks that Putin will be alone without China. Therefore, Putin will refrain from using nuclear weapons.

"Atlas" Research Center

 

About us

"Atlas" Research Center was founded in Baku in 2003 by a group of political experts. The head of the center is political analyst Elkhan Sahinoglu.

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