Day: March 8, 2023

Washington is in favor of direct negotiations

Louis Bono, the US State Department's chief adviser on Caucasus negotiations, has concluded his visit to the region. He met with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan and exchanged views. After finishing the meetings, Bono expressed the opinion that "we want Azerbaijan and Armenia to prepare the text of the peace treaty themselves." Bono believes that a positive result will be achieved as a result of direct dialogue: "Because any long-term, sustainable and balanced peace is possible only with the efforts of both sides."

Washington, in the language of Bono, proposed to expand the dialogue between Baku and Yerevan without intermediaries. There are currently 3 mediators. This is Moscow, Brussels and Washington. Negotiations have been going on for two years in different formats, but there is no result. Recent history shows that direct negotiations have not resulted in short-term and long-term solutions to various conflicts. Mostly impartial mediators play an important role in conflict resolution. For example, the tension between Serbia and Kosovo has been going on for years. Direct contacts were unsuccessful. Between these two, there are two main mediators - Washington and Brussels. Currently, both Kosovo and Serbia are on the verge of agreeing to the EU settlement plan. If there is peace, both of them will become members of the European Union.

Nevertheless, the American diplomat does not see any harm in direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both sides can form a permanent working group and that group can discuss various issues on a permanent basis in Tbilisi. This can have a positive effect on the overall result.

Brussels does not object to the control of the road to Lach

The special representative of the European Union for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, in his interview with the "APA" agency, touched on a number of issues, and it is necessary to highlight two of them.

First, the representative of the European Union said that the idea of ensuring transparency about what is transported on the Lachin road is completely legitimate: "We do not want products that increase the tension on the Lachin road to be transported, used for any military or illegal purposes. "Transparency is absolutely legal." Louis Bono, the chief advisor of the US State Department on Caucasus negotiations, expressed almost the same opinion after the meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Baku. In other words, Brussels and Washington do not object to the establishment of a checkpoint on the Lachin road of Azerbaijan, they consider it a natural right of Azerbaijan.

Secondly, the representative of the European Union gave a positive answer to the question "Do you have contact with Russian officials regarding the process in the Caucasus?" , I have also discussed this. In other words, there are contacts."

Why did Klaar's answer attract attention? Because Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his spokesperson Maria Zakharova are constantly expressing opinions such as "The European Union is engaged in mysterious activities in the South Caucasus" and "Brussels wants to suppress Russia in the region". However, it can be understood from Klaar's words that the European Union regularly informs Moscow about its mediation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, despite imposing strict sanctions against Russia for waging an aggressive war against Ukraine. Lavrov and Zakharova have not spoken a single sentence about Brussels' contacts with them regarding this issue.

Belarus faces a difficult choice

Ukraine and Western countries were worried about the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Kyiv and the capitals of Western countries believe that Lukashenko will join the invasion of Ukraine. Because Russian President Vladimir Putin's pressure on Lukashenko has increased. Putin wants Lukashenko to open a second front against Ukraine. The owner of the Kremlin visited Minsk for this purpose some time ago.

Alexander Lukashenko does not want his country to participate in the war. The society, army and generals of Belarus are also of the opinion that the war against Ukraine does not concern them. However, Belarus is economically and politically dependent on the Kremlin. For this reason, it is difficult for Lukashenko to say "no" to Putin every time. Unlike Russia, the Belarusian embassy in Ukraine continues to operate. With this, Kiev sends a message to Minsk that despite the disagreement, they are ready to continue their contacts with Belarus. However, if Minsk joins the war with Russia, Ukraine will have to fight against Belarus.

Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko visited China and met with the leader of this country, Xi Jinping. Lucasheno had several goals for this trip.

Firstly, Alexander Lukashenko indicated that he supports China's position on the issue of Ukraine. He stressed that he supports Beijing's 12-point proposal. Some time ago, China sent a 12-point package of proposals to Russia and Ukraine to end the war. Although the proposals were not accepted, they were supposed to strengthen the image of Beijing as a pro-peace. Although China acts as a strategic partner of Russia, it supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Second, Alexander Lukashenko is trying to strengthen economic relations with China. Lukashenko wants China to increase its investments in Belarus. With this, Lukashenko hopes to reduce his economic dependence on Russia. However, the ongoing war with the neighborhood does not create a fertile ground for China to increase its investments in Belarus. Beijing has made large investments in the countries of Central Asia, and it is difficult to do the same for Belarus. The Russia-Ukraine war must stop so that Beijing can decide to invest in Belarus.

Western countries have sanctions against Belarus as well as Russia. There is also tension in US relations with China. Washington and Brussels warned Beijing that China should not sell arms and military equipment to Russia. Beijing has not decided. China's main trading partners are in the West. Therefore, Beijing wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. However, Beijing cannot influence Moscow. In this sense, Beijing can directly convey its message to Moscow and use the mediation of the Belarusian president. In any case, the Russia-Belarus-China political alliance will not please the West, and this factor will create additional problems in Beijing's relations with Western countries.

"Atlas" Research Center

About us

"Atlas" Research Center was founded in Baku in 2003 by a group of political experts. The head of the center is political analyst Elkhan Sahinoglu.

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