Belarus faces a difficult choice

Ukraine and Western countries were worried about the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Kyiv and the capitals of Western countries believe that Lukashenko will join the invasion of Ukraine. Because Russian President Vladimir Putin's pressure on Lukashenko has increased. Putin wants Lukashenko to open a second front against Ukraine. The owner of the Kremlin visited Minsk for this purpose some time ago.

Alexander Lukashenko does not want his country to participate in the war. The society, army and generals of Belarus are also of the opinion that the war against Ukraine does not concern them. However, Belarus is economically and politically dependent on the Kremlin. For this reason, it is difficult for Lukashenko to say "no" to Putin every time. Unlike Russia, the Belarusian embassy in Ukraine continues to operate. With this, Kiev sends a message to Minsk that despite the disagreement, they are ready to continue their contacts with Belarus. However, if Minsk joins the war with Russia, Ukraine will have to fight against Belarus.

Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko visited China and met with the leader of this country, Xi Jinping. Lucasheno had several goals for this trip.

Firstly, Alexander Lukashenko indicated that he supports China's position on the issue of Ukraine. He stressed that he supports Beijing's 12-point proposal. Some time ago, China sent a 12-point package of proposals to Russia and Ukraine to end the war. Although the proposals were not accepted, they were supposed to strengthen the image of Beijing as a pro-peace. Although China acts as a strategic partner of Russia, it supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Second, Alexander Lukashenko is trying to strengthen economic relations with China. Lukashenko wants China to increase its investments in Belarus. With this, Lukashenko hopes to reduce his economic dependence on Russia. However, the ongoing war with the neighborhood does not create a fertile ground for China to increase its investments in Belarus. Beijing has made large investments in the countries of Central Asia, and it is difficult to do the same for Belarus. The Russia-Ukraine war must stop so that Beijing can decide to invest in Belarus.

Western countries have sanctions against Belarus as well as Russia. There is also tension in US relations with China. Washington and Brussels warned Beijing that China should not sell arms and military equipment to Russia. Beijing has not decided. China's main trading partners are in the West. Therefore, Beijing wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. However, Beijing cannot influence Moscow. In this sense, Beijing can directly convey its message to Moscow and use the mediation of the Belarusian president. In any case, the Russia-Belarus-China political alliance will not please the West, and this factor will create additional problems in Beijing's relations with Western countries.

"Atlas" Research Center