Iran depends on China

Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi visited China and met with the country's leader, Xi Jinping. During the visit, 20 cooperation agreements were signed between the two countries. Agreements cover different areas. This range includes areas such as crisis management, tourism, communication and information technology, agriculture, health, media, sports and cultural heritage protection. In other words, there is no field left without agreement on cooperation.

Tehran attaches special importance to cooperation with Beijing. Ibrahim Raisi's visit to China is the first official visit of an Iranian leader to this country in the last 20 years. Western sanctions push Iran to expand economic cooperation with China. In 2022, the volume of exports from Iran to China increased by 581 TP2T and exceeded 14 billion dollars. China is the first importer of Iranian goods. China is the second exporter of goods to Iran.

Thus, Iran's dependence on China has increased. Iran sells its oil to China at a cheap price. Because Iran's access to other markets is limited. Beijing also uses this to buy Iranian oil at a cheap price. Beijing also buys cheap gas from Russia, which is under sanctions. Because, like Iran, Russia cannot sell its gas to other countries due to sanctions.

The biggest agreement between Iran and China was signed in 2021. According to this agreement, China will invest 400 billion dollars in Iran for 25 years. But Beijing may not fulfill this promise. It depends on the events that will take place around Iran. For example, if a war breaks out between Israel and Iran, Beijing will have to change its plans. Iran's efforts to enrich uranium raise questions not only in the West but also in China. Some of China's steps raise questions in Tehran. For example, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia, Iran's rival in the region, in recent months. The Chinese leader met not only with the Saudi king, but also with several Arab leaders in this country. In order not to waste time on the Chinese leader's separate visit to Arab countries, a Sino-Arab summit was held in the capital of Saudi Arabia. Arab countries are trying to expand cooperation with China. Beijing is also interested in this.

Tehran is worried about the extent to which China-Arab cooperation will develop. Therefore, despite Beijing's promises to Tehran regarding cooperation and the signed memorandums, the course of Sino-Iranian relations may be different. There are those in Tehran who say that an alliance with China could be dangerous for Iran.

"Atlas" Research Center