Can Beijing replace Ankara?

Russia's occupation of Bakhmut will prolong the war. Although Ukraine lost this city, it did not give up counter-offensive operations. In such a situation, negotiations between the parties are not realistic. Although Turkey acted as an interim mediator to stop the war, it retreated in the face of the increasing intensity of the war. Although several meetings were held in Istanbul, no results were achieved. The main success in Ankara's mediation was the "grain agreement". However, there is a need to extend the agreement every time, so the negotiations are difficult to progress.

Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to take Ankara's place. Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the phone shortly after his two-day visit to Russia. But this is not enough to be a mediator. For this reason, Tsi Jinpin sent a representative to Kyiv. Li Huin, China's special representative for Eurasian affairs, held discussions in Kyiv. After Kiev, the Chinese diplomat held discussions in Poland, France, Germany and Russia in order to find solutions to the war in Ukraine. Li Huin was once the ambassador of China to Russia.

Despite these initiatives by Beijing, there is no result. Beijing's 12-point package of proposals to end the war several months ago did not work. The biggest flaw of these proposals is that there is not even a sentence about the Russian army leaving the territory of Ukraine. Western countries do not believe in Beijing's sincerity. French President Emmanuel Macron said that due to the war in Ukraine, Russia has effectively become a vassal of China. At the meeting of the "Big Seven" in Japan, the leaders called on China and emphasized the importance of Beijing's influence on the Kremlin's policy in order to stop the war. Beijing has no intention of influencing the Kremlin in order to stop the war and occupation. The "Big Seven" believe that China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has the opportunity to stop the war, but Beijing does not want to use this opportunity.

Washington and Brussels will not allow Beijing to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Although Kiev welcomes China's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, Ukraine is dependent on financial and military aid from the West. Kiev has to take into account the opinion of Washington and Brussels.

"Atlas" Research Center