Is "real negotiations" possible?

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said in an interview to "CBS News" channel that "real negotiations" between Ukraine and Russia are possible until the end of the year. But who will be the mediator? Kissinger suggested China.

What did Kissinger refer to when he said that Beijing could be a mediator? Beijing's recent growing role seems to indicate this. Beijing became the main mediator in the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Beijing itself wants to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. But there is no basis for this. Beijing maintains a distance with Kiev while strengthening its strategic partnership with Moscow. It is true that Beijing supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but it does not condemn the occupation and does not talk about the need to return the land to Ukraine. Without this, it is impossible to ensure peace.

Despite Kissinger's positive statement about China, Washington and Brussels do not accept China's mediation between Ukraine and Russia. Washington and Brussels are the main supporters of Ukraine. Kyiv has to reckon with the opinion of these two centers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a telephone conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping simply concluded that China will not sell arms and military equipment to Russia. But Washington and Brussels have little faith that Beijing will fulfill this promise.

Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing to impose sanctions against China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that if the European Union imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, Beijing will protect its interests. This means that Beijing will also accept sanctions against the countries of the European Union.

Beijing believes that Washington has broken the positive momentum achieved by the leaders of the United States and China in Bali. China's Foreign Minister Xing Gan said this in a meeting with US Ambassador to this country Nicholas Burns. In November 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joseph Biden held successful talks on the Indonesian island of Bali within the framework of the G-20 summit. Beijing hoped that relations would normalize after these talks. It didn't happen. Beijing believes that Biden has returned to the politics of former President Donald Trump. The most tense period of relations with China coincided with the presidency of Donald Trump.

It will be difficult for Beijing to normalize relations with Washington. Beijing is trying to avoid the same situation in Europe-China relations. However, this does not depend on Beijing's wishes. Brussels is preparing a new strategy for China. In an article published in the "Financial Times" newspaper, it is written that the European Union may impose sanctions against seven Chinese companies that supply electronic equipment to Russia. According to the publication, restrictions may be imposed on companies that produce microchips, semiconductors and other electronic products. These will pave the way for the European Union to tighten its policy on China.

"Atlas" Research Center